19 мая - научный семинар Лаборатории глобальной гидрологии ИВП РАН

НАУЧНЫЙ СЕМИНАР

ЛАБОРАТОРИИ ГЛОБАЛЬНОЙ ГИДРОЛОГИИ

ИНСТИТУТА ВОДНЫХ ПРОБЛЕМ РАН

Уважаемые коллеги!

Приглашаем принять участие в заседании семинара Лаборатории глобальной гидрологии ИВП РАН, которое состоится в понедельник 19 мая 2025 г. в 11-00 в аудитории 416 (ул. Губкина, д. 3, ИВП РАН, 4-й этаж)

Повестка дня

1. Доклад Ландера Ван Трихта (dr. Lander Van Tricht), Свободный Университет Брюсселя (Vrije Universiteit Brussel) - «Modelling the Impact of Mining Activities on the Dynamics and Evolution of a Kyrgyz Glacier»

2. Разное.

Аннотация

Glaciers worldwide are retreating because of climate change. However, local human activities also influence their dynamics. Here, we model the impact of gold mining operations on Davydov glacier in the Central Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan, from the Little Ice Age through 2100 using a 3D thermodynamic ice flow model. Satellite observations and model simulations reveal that mining activities over the past two decades shortened Davydov glacier by ~2 km and reduced its volume by 160 million m³, compared to a scenario where the glacier would have solely evolved due to climate forcing. If mining ceases, the glacier could temporarily advance by up to 100 m. However, by 2060, the glacier will retreat beyond the mining site, with no differences between mining and no-mining scenarios. By 2100, volume losses range from -40% to -99%, depending on the climate scenario. A return to the Little Ice Age climate could allow full recovery within 500 years. However, mining-induced landscape changes would result in glacier regrowth to a larger extent, increasing the glacier’s volume to 2.5 times its original size, with ice thickness reaching 600 m. This study highlights how human activities near glaciers can significantly impact their geometry, stability, and long-term evolution, emphasising the lasting consequences of landscape modifications on glacier response.