Dobrovolsky S.G. Global Hydrology. Processes and Forecasts. М.: GEOS, 2017. 526 p. ISBN: 978-5-89118-558-6
Following processes are investigated at global, regional and local spatial scales, and at climatic temporal scales. (1) Evaporation from the ocean surface. (2) Precipitation over the ocean. (3) Effective evaporation from the ocean surface. (4) Horizontal water vapor transport in the atmosphere. (5) Precipitation over land surface (separately for the ice sheets and for the land free of ice). (6) Evapotranspiration from the land surface. (7) Effective precipitation over land. (8) The river runoff. (9) Floods. (10) Droughts. The above processes are analyzed using observational data, data of reanalysis projects, and data provided by the GCMs. Also, for the description of processes under investigation, new dynamic-stochastic and stochastic models are used. For the latter, new methods of analysis are proposed on the basis of the random functions theory and on a new algorithm of generating the Gaussian random values. The problem of forecasting the river runoff through the 21th century is discussed as well. For this purpose, 6 IPCC scenarios and 21 GCMs were involved into calculations. A new approach to the estimating the uncertainties of the forecasts are proposed: the author takes into consideration not only uncertainties due to differences between scenarios of the greenhouse gases emissions and between different GCMs, but also uncertainties due to errors in estimating the mathematical expectation of the runoff values through the period of instrumental observations, and due to possible natural global climatic changes in the future. It is shown that the latter source of uncertainties is predominating in the regions where the highest increase in the runoff is expected: in the north-east of Eurasia. Appropriate prognostic maps are included into the monograph – as well as chronological probabilistic forecasts of the mean annual runoff values of 30 most important rivers of the World for the period 2020 - 2100. Appendix 1 includes data on parameters of the mean runoff at approximately 2000 river gauges and of appropriate watersheds, as well as the results of the analysis of the annual, maximal, and minimal river runoff time series at these gauges. Appendix 2 includes a computer program for generating random values using a new mirror-doubling approach to the generating algorithm.
526 pages, 251 references, 287 graphs, 24 tables.