Motovilov, Y. G., Kortunova, K. V., & Fashchevskaya, T. B. (2024). Modelling fields of hydrological cycle characteristics in the Nizhnekamskoye Reservoir watershed of the Volga River basin under climate change. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 69(16)

The assessment of trends in hydroclimatic characteristics averaged over the watershed area and changes in the fields of the hydrological cycle components in the 21st century in a large river basin of the Nizhnekamskoye Reservoir was carried out on the basis of a model approach combining regional space distributed hydrological model and global climate models. It is shown that a slight decrease by 8% is expected in the area-averaged specific runoff by the end of the century according to the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. However, in various parts of the watershed both a slight increase by 3–6% and a significant decrease in the mean annual runoff by 22% can occur, depending on physiographic conditions. Moreover, climatic changes can increase contrasts in the ecological status of the territory: warm regions in the steppe zone become even hotter and more arid, and the moisture availability of wetter territories in the centre and east of the basin increases even more.