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MainPublicationsPeer-reviewed international papersGelfan A., GustafssonD., Motovilov Yu., Arheimer B., Kalugin A., Krylenko I., Lavrenov A. (2016) Cli...
Peer-reviewed international papers Books Int. Conference Proceedings

Gelfan A., GustafssonD., Motovilov Yu., Arheimer B., Kalugin A., Krylenko I., Lavrenov A. (2016) Climate change impact on the water regime of two great Arctic rivers: modeling and uncertainty issues. Climatic Change. doi 10.1007/s10584-016-1710-5

http://rdcu.be/nhJw

The ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics (ECOMAG) and the HYdrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) process-based hydrological models were set up to assess possible impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime of two pan-Arctic great drainage basins of the Lena and the Mackenzie Rivers. We firstly assessed the reliability of the hydrological models to reproduce the historical streamflow series and analyzed the hydrological projections driven by the climate change scenarios. The impacts were assessed for three 30-year periods (early- (2006–2035), mid- (2036–2065), and end-century (2070–2099)) using an ensemble of five global climate models (GCMs) and four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Results show, particularly, that the basins react with a multi-year delay to changes in RCP2.6, so-called Bmitigation^ scenario, and consequently to the potential mitigation measures. Then, we assessed the hydrological projections’ variability, which is caused by the GCM’s and RCP’s uncertainties, and found that the variability rises with the time horizon of the projection, and generally, the projection variability is larger for the Mackenzie than for the Lena. We finally compared the mean annual runoff anomalies projected under the GCM-based data for the twenty-first century with the corresponding anomalies projected under a modified observed climatology using the delta-change method in the Lena basin. We found that the compared projections are closely correlated for the earlycentury period. Thus, for the Lena basin, the modified observed climatology can be used as driving force for hydrological model-based projections and considered as an alternative to the GCM-based scenarios.

Date of publication:
10.07.2016
Author:
Gelfan Aleksandr Naumovich, Motovilov Yuri Georgievich, Kalugin Andrey Sergeevich, Krylenko Inna Nikolaevna

Оther publications
All publications
12.09.2023
Zhang, S., Gan, T. Y., Bush, A. B. G., Liu, J., Zolina, O., & Gelfan, A. (2023). Changes of the streamflow of northern river basins of Siberia and their teleconnections to climate patterns. International Journal of Climatology, 1–17
11.09.2023
Gelfan, A., Kalugin, A. & Krylenko, I. (2023) Detection, attribution, and specifying mechanisms of hydrological changes in geographically different river basins. Climatic Change 176 (9), 122-142
08.09.2023
Caretta, M.A., A. Mukherji, M. Arfanuzzaman, R.A. Betts, A. Gelfan ... (2022) Water. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 551–712
05.09.2023
Gelfan, A.N., Gusev, E.M., Kalugin, A.S. et al. Runoff of Russian Rivers under Current and Projected Climate Change: a Review 2. Climate Change Impact on the Water Regime of Russian Rivers in the XXI Century. Water Resour 49, 351–365 (2022)
04.09.2023
Frolova, N.L., Magritskii, D.V., Kireeva, M.B. et al. Streamflow of Russian Rivers under Current and Forecasted Climate Changes: A Review of Publications. 1. Assessment of Changes in the Water Regime of Russian Rivers by Observation Data. Water Resour 49
05.06.2023
Gelfan A., Kalugin A. (2021) Permafrost in the Caspian Basin as a Possible Trigger of the Late Khvalynian Transgression: Testing Hypothesis Using a Hydrological Model. Water Resources. 48(6), 831-843
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